The Institute of health metrics and evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle, a leading institution for population studies, has conducted a study of Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100.
India’s population in 2017 was 1.4 billion and its fertility rate 2.1. The educational attainment of the country is seven years per capita. The following life expectancy graphs are very educative and we see that the actual observed life expectancy is very close to Expected life expectancy.
Understanding future population dynamics is very important for planning growth and development in the country as well as for preparing for various needs, even though such estimates are surrounded by a degree of uncertainty. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size and age structure that have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts. The dominant discourse in the socio-political situation of the country determines fertility rates as well as future population and whose present value as well its progression determine the age structure of the population. The age distribution of the population as well as the total population significantly impact the economy, geopolitical aspects as well as social group dynamics within a geography.
Migration has potential to impact all these dynamics significantly. Existing social groups often resist migration when they sense a threat to their dominance. They work actively against movement of people and such behavior is commonly seen in all countries at different points of time. The push against migrants by the present US Administration is only an example case. Due to the uncertainties involved, we can just do with a rider that migration is likely to impact any population prediction.
FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
The study found that in the reference scenario, the projections in 2100 for India were India 1·09 billion [0·72–1·71]. An alternative scenario describes population dynamics when Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82–8·73) in 2100 and a population of 0.929 billion for India.
INDIA POPULATION: SOURCE: In the graphic above
Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91–2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11–2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100.
By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. India now has a TFR of 2.0 and the same would be 1.42 by 2040 and would almost level off thereafter.
23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (−6·1 to 68·4). India’s current population is 141 billion and the same is likely to peak at 161 billion by 2047 and reduce to 1.09 billion by 2100 in the reference scenario. Under the condition that SDG parameters are met the population would peak at 1.55 billion by 2040 thereafter reduce to 0.929 billion by 2100.
INDIA AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
India has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. The average age of an Indian is 29 years and India's dependency ratio is just over 0.4. The number of children in India peaked more than a decade ago and is now falling. UNFPA stated that, “A country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend. With fewer younger dependents, due to declining fertility, and fewer older dependents, due to the older generations having shorter life expectancies, and the largest segment of the population of productive working age, the dependency ratio has declined dramatically in India leading to the demographic dividend.
However, this realization comes with challenges.
In absolute terms we would keep adding a large number of young people to the working-age population each year. Creating conditions for decent livelihoods will be an enormous task, especially given that, currently, a significant number of people in the working age are unemployed, underemployed or irregularly employed. Additionally, the shortage of financial resources will make it difficult to maintain, let alone increase, spending on health, education and nutrition.”
During the course of the demographic dividend there are four mechanisms through which the benefits are delivered.
- The first is the increased labor supply. However, the magnitude of this benefit will depend on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers rather than be a pure demographic gift.
- The second mechanism is the increase in savings. As the number of dependents decreases individuals can save more. This increase in national savings rates increases the stock of capital and leads to higher productivity as the accumulated capital is invested.
- The third mechanism is human capital. Decreases in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home. This also allows parents to invest more resources per child, leading to better health and educational outcomes.
- The fourth mechanism for growth is the increasing domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio.
There is a strategic urgency to put in place policies which take advantage of the demographic dividend and this urgency stems from the relatively small window of opportunity countries have to plan for the demographic dividend when many in their population are still young, prior to entering the work force. During this short opportunity, we should help the young people be more productive during their working years. Failure on this count will result in rising unemployment and an increased risk of social upheaval.
No comments:
Post a Comment